Market Beats | US Mortgage Rates Hit 2026 High; US Wholesale Inflation Accelerates Unexpectedly in February; Macy’s Shares Surge on Robust Sales Forecast; Zum Services Hits $333 Million Revenue Mark; Microsoft Threatens Legal Action Over $50B Amazon-OpenAI Deal; Swarmer Shares Rocket 520% in Nasdaq Debut; Former Trump Nominee Warns US Economy Cannot Withstand $100 Oil

—— US Mortgage Rates Hit 2026 High; US Wholesale Inflation Accelerates Unexpectedly in February; Macy’s Shares Surge on Robust Sales Forecast; Zum Services Hits $333 Million Revenue Mark; Microsoft Threatens Legal Action Over $50B Amazon-OpenAI Deal; Swarmer Shares Rocket 520% in Nasdaq Debut; Former Trump Nominee Warns US Economy Cannot Withstand $100 Oil.

1. US Mortgage Rates Hit 2026 High

US home financing costs surged last week to their highest levels of the year, triggering a sharp contraction in mortgage activity. According to Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) data released Wednesday, the average contract rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage rose 11 basis points to 6.30% in the week ended March 13. The spike was even more pronounced for five-year adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), which soared nearly 40 basis points—the largest one-week advance since early 2024. Consequently, refinancing applications plummeted 18.5%, the steepest weekly decline this year.

Since the war in Iran has fueled concerns over heightened inflationary pressures, 10-year Treasury yields have climbed steadily, pulling mortgage rates upward in their wake. As the crucial spring selling season begins, the rapid increase in borrowing costs threatens to dampen homebuyer demand, even as purchase applications managed a third consecutive weekly gain. Federal Reserve officials are widely expected to keep interest rates steady at their meeting later today. Currently, economists are closely monitoring the impact of the Persian Gulf oil shock on both inflation and broader economic growth.

While housing inventory has improved, the prospect of a prolonged conflict suggests that sub-6% mortgage rates may remain out of reach for the foreseeable future.

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2. US Wholesale Inflation Accelerates Unexpectedly in February

US producer prices rose at a faster-than-expected pace in February, driven by broad-based gains in both goods and services. The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased 0.7% for the month, accelerating from a 0.5% gain in January. Core PPI, which strips out volatile food and energy components, rose 0.5%. While consumer inflation (CPI) had shown signs of stabilizing earlier in the month, this wholesale data suggests that cost pressures remain firmly embedded in the supply chain.

Since more than half of the February increase was fueled by a 0.5% advance in services and a sharp 1.1% jump in goods prices, the report highlights a shift away from the disinflationary trend seen late last year. As the conflict in Iran begins to filter through to energy prices and impact broader sentiment, economists warn of a potential “second wave” of inflation hitting the retail level. Currently, Federal Reserve policymakers are weighing this data ahead of their rate decision later today.

While headline figures matched some bearish forecasts, the tenth consecutive monthly advance in the underlying core gauge suggests that the path back to the Fed’s 2% target remains fraught with difficulty.

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3. Macy’s Shares Surge on Robust Sales Forecast

Macy’s Inc. projected first-quarter sales above Wall Street estimates Wednesday, signaling a solid start to its fiscal year as affluent households continue to bolster discretionary spending. The department-store operator expects net sales to reach as high as $4.63 billion, surpassing the Bloomberg-compiled analyst consensus. Comparable sales are forecasted to climb as much as 1.5%, providing a much-needed catalyst for a stock that had retreated 23% since the start of 2026.

A widening gap in consumer behavior defines the current retail landscape. “We see a resilient consumer that continues to shop for newness and fashion, particularly in the middle to upper income,” CEO Tony Spring noted, adding that lower-income shoppers remain under significant financial pressure. This bifurcation was most evident at the company’s luxury banner, Bloomingdale’s, where comparable sales spiked nearly 10% in the quarter ended Jan. 31.

Today’s rally offers a sharp reversal for the retailer after months of underperformance. By beating estimates across net sales, comparable revenue, and profit, Macy’s has demonstrated an ability to navigate a volatile economic environment.

Investors are now focusing on the company’s inventory management and strategic pivots, as the strong guidance suggests the turnaround efforts led by Tony Spring are gaining traction in a competitive spring season.

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4. Zum Services Hits $333 Million Revenue Mark

Zum Services Inc., a tech firm modernizing school transportation for over 4,000 schools, reported $333 million in 2025 revenue, marking a 35% increase from the prior year. The California-based company utilizes an integrated platform to optimize routing, manage drivers, and deploy electric bus fleets. CEO Ritu Narayan highlighted a robust pipeline of future growth, noting that the firm has booked more than $2 billion in contract revenue over the next five years through long-term deals with major districts including Los Angeles and San Francisco.

Digital integration is finally reaching the antiquated “yellow bus” industry. By connecting students, parents, and operators in real-time, Zum aims to replace fragmented legacy systems with a transparent, end-to-end infrastructure. This tech-first approach has garnered significant backing from heavyweight investors, including SoftBank, Sequoia Capital, and Singapore’s GIC, totaling over $300 million in equity funding to date.

The company’s $1.3 billion valuation reflects high expectations for its eventual public offering. Beyond simple software, Zum’s commitment to building out electric fleets positions it as a key partner for school districts facing 2026 sustainability mandates.

Future scaling efforts will focus on expanding geographic reach, as the company seeks to leverage its multi-billion dollar backlog to dominate the domestic student transit market.

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5. Microsoft Threatens Legal Action Over $50B Amazon-OpenAI Deal

A high-stakes clash between Big Tech rivals is brewing as Microsoft weighs a lawsuit against Amazon and OpenAI. The dispute centers on a $50 billion deal that potentially breaches Microsoft’s exclusive cloud agreement with the ChatGPT creator. At the heart of the conflict is whether Amazon Web Services (AWS) can host OpenAI’s upcoming commercial product, “Frontier,” a move Microsoft executives claim would violate the spirit and letter of their longstanding Azure-centric partnership.

The exclusive arrangement has been a primary engine for Azure’s record-breaking revenue growth. While Amazon and OpenAI argue their new system avoids contractual pitfalls, Microsoft remains unconvinced, with insiders backing the strength of their original legal protections. This friction underscores a widening strategic rift. As OpenAI pushes for independence and infrastructure diversification, Microsoft is increasingly pivoting to view its premier AI partner as a formidable enterprise competitor.

Negotiations to resolve the standoff continue, yet the specter of a multi-billion dollar litigation looms over the launch of Frontier in early 2026.

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6. Swarmer Shares Rocket 520% in Nasdaq Debut

Swarmer, a drone software developer chaired by private security veteran Erik Prince, delivered a stunning 520% surge during its first day of trading on the Nasdaq Tuesday. After pricing at $5 per share, the Austin-based company opened at $12.50 and ended the session at $31, commanding a market value of $380 million. This rally marks the most explosive IPO performance since Newsmax’s 700% climb last March, according to Renaissance Capital data.

The surge reflects a gold rush in the domestic drone industry following the FCC’s ban on Chinese-made equipment. “The Department of War has been asleep for dozens of years,” Prince remarked, highlighting his mission to disrupt a “cartel-like” defense sector with affordable, AI-driven swarming technology. Swarmer’s flagship software enables a single pilot to command up to 690 drones—a capability already tested by the Ukrainian military.

As the conflicts in Ukraine and Iran solidify drones as essential modern weaponry, Swarmer’s ability to mass-produce lethal autonomous solutions has captured intense investor interest in early 2026.

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7. Former Trump Nominee Warns US Economy Cannot Withstand $100 Oil

The U.S. economy is too frail to absorb oil prices at $100 per barrel, according to EJ Antoni, the Heritage Foundation economist once picked by Donald Trump to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Speaking to the FT on Wednesday, Antoni warned that the disinflationary benefits of 2025 have vanished, replaced by upward price pressure across the entire economic spectrum as Brent crude surged 5% to nearly $110 a barrel following escalations in Iran.

Rising energy costs are rapidly becoming a political liability for the GOP. With pump prices jumping from $2.92 to $3.84 in just one month, Republican strategists fear a voter backlash in the upcoming 2026 midterm elections. The economic alarm coincides with growing internal dissent within the administration. Antoni’s critique follows the high-profile resignation of the National Counterterrorism Center director, marking a turbulent 24 hours for the White House.

Federal Reserve officials are confronting these grim figures during today’s policy meeting. The dual shock of $5 diesel and stalling consumer sentiment suggests that the “soft landing” projected late last year is under immediate threat.

Market analysts are now recalibrating their year-end forecasts, as the protracted conflict in the Persian Gulf threatens to anchor inflation far above the Fed’s target throughout the 2026 fiscal year.

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