Market Beats | Tesla Deliveries Seen at 439,600 in Q3; US Private Payrolls Unexpectedly Fall in September; Republicans Seize on Shutdown to Push Federal Cuts; Bloomberg – White House Freezes $18 Billion for New York Projects; Florida Insurance Bets Create New Billionaires; Study Links ALS Progression to Autoimmune Response; Nike Shows Signs of Recovery

—— Tesla Deliveries Seen at 439,600 in Q3; US Private Payrolls Unexpectedly Fall in September; Republicans Seize on Shutdown to Push Federal Cuts; Bloomberg – White House Freezes $18 Billion for New York Projects; Florida Insurance Bets Create New Billionaires; Study Links ALS Progression to Autoimmune Response; Nike Shows Signs of Recovery

1. Tesla Deliveries Seen at 439,600 in Q3

Tesla Inc. is expected to have delivered about 439,600 vehicles worldwide in the third quarter, according to Bloomberg-compiled analyst estimates. That would mark a 5% year-over-year decline — the company’s third straight drop — but a notable improvement from the 13% slump in the first half of 2025, offering investors some relief.

The EV maker continues to grapple with an aging lineup, the end of U.S. subsidies for electric vehicles, and consumer pushback tied to CEO Elon Musk’s political profile. “This quarter is pivotal for Tesla to demonstrate that its legacy business has stabilized,” said Andrew Rocco, equity strategist at Zacks Investment Research.

Tesla has tried to shift attention away from weaker sales by highlighting its new driverless-taxi service and advancements in AI and robotics. It is also seeking shareholder approval for an unprecedented $1trillion compensation plan for Musk tied to growth milestones.

Wall Street has largely embraced the story, with analysts recently boosting price targets and delivery forecasts. Tesla shares surged 33% in September, the stock’s best month of 2025, erasing early-year losses.

U.S. EV demand temporarily jumped in Q3 as buyers rushed to secure the expiring $7,500 federal tax credit before the September 30 deadline. “Tesla has likely benefited from this summer’s wave of EV purchases,” said Cox Automotive Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough, while cautioning that the quarter may be a “mixed story” and market share could slip further in the year’s final months.

Musk has already warned of “a few rough quarters” ahead as U.S. policy shifts. Alongside the tax-credit expiration, the Trump administration is rolling back fuel economy and emissions standards, curtailing the regulatory-credit revenue that had long supported Tesla’s profits.

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2. US Private Payrolls Unexpectedly Fall in September

Employment at US companies unexpectedly fell in September, partly due to a methodological recalibration by ADP.

Private-sector payrolls declined by 32,000 last month following a revised 3,000 drop in August, according to data released Wednesday by ADP Research. The figure came in below all forecasts in a Bloomberg survey. ADP noted that its benchmarking against the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages — which draws on unemployment insurance tax records — reduced September’s job count by 43,000 compared with preliminary data. While that may exaggerate labor market weakness, ADP said the broader trend of cooling hiring momentum remains intact. “Despite strong GDP growth in the second quarter, this release reinforces what we’ve been observing — employers remain cautious in bringing on new workers,” said Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist.

The report is expected to be the week’s most closely watched labor market indicator since the government’s September employment release, originally due Friday, will be delayed by the federal shutdown. Other recent indicators also point to sluggish job creation, softer hiring appetite, limited layoffs, and modest wage increases.

Still, economists continue to cast doubt on ADP’s reliability, noting its track record of diverging from the government’s “gold standard” data. “We are reluctant to rely on ADP’s report. The rebenchmarking adds to uncertainty,” Morgan Stanley economists led by Michael Gapen wrote, describing the methodology as “opaque.”

ADP said its recalibration used the 2024 BLS census to better capture employment distribution by industry, geography, and company size.

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3. Republicans Seize on Shutdown to Push Federal Cuts

Pfizer Inc. is set to unveil a sweeping initiative to cut US prescription drug prices during a joint event with President Donald Trump on Tuesday, according to White House officials.

Key measures include providing “most favored nation” pricing for Medicaid enrollees — ensuring they receive the lowest global price on select Pfizer medications. This aligns with President Trump’s broader push to bring US drug prices in line with international levels.

Pfizer will also launch TrumpRx, a new government-run platform enabling Americans to purchase certain high-demand drugs at steep discounts via direct-to-consumer cash payments.

The company will additionally announce a $70 billion investment in domestic R&D and manufacturing. CEO Albert Bourla is expected to speak at the event.

“President Trump is doing more to lower healthcare costs than anyone else in Washington,” said White House spokesman Kush Desai. “Democrats talked for decades — Trump is the one walking the walk.”

Pfizer shares surged as much as 4.6% Tuesday before paring gains.

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4. Bloomberg – White House Freezes $18 Billion for New York Projects

On the first day of the federal shutdown, the White House halted $18billion in infrastructure funding for New York, citing objections to diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) policies.

Russell Vought, director of the Office of Management and Budget, said in a post on X Wednesday that the freeze targeted “unconstitutional DEI principles,” naming the Hudson Tunnel Project and the Second Avenue Subway.

The decision coincided with escalating partisan battles between President Donald Trump and Republicans on one side and Congressional Democrats — including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries — on the other. New York Governor Kathy Hochul, speaking at a press conference at the Statue of Liberty, learned of Vought’s statement in real time. “The bad news just keeps coming,” Hochul said, accusing the administration of weaponizing cultural disputes to justify the move.

“These culture wars jeopardize tens of thousands of jobs created by projects that had been stalled for decades, projects that finally started creating opportunity and addressing long-neglected infrastructure challenges,” she said.

The U.S. Department of Transportation confirmed it was reviewing the projects to determine compliance with a new rule banning race- and sex-based contracting requirements. However, the review has been delayed because staff assigned to the case were furloughed during the shutdown. In a statement, the department placed blame on Schumer and Jeffries.

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5. Florida Insurance Bets Create New Billionaires

Three insurance executives have struck billion-dollar fortunes by diving into one of the riskiest markets in the U.S.: Florida’s property and casualty sector.

Bruce and Shannon Lucas briefly joined the billionaire ranks in June after shares of their Slide Insurance Holdings Inc. surged 37% in the first three days of trading. On Wednesday, Trevor Burgess saw his net worth climb to $1.2billion as Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc., based in St. Petersburg and billing itself as the nation’s largest private flood insurer, rose 17% in its New York trading debut.

As fraud complaints and a retreating pool of reinsurers drove national insurers out of Florida in recent years, firms like Slide and Neptune have filled the void. Slide has benefited from a steady inflow of customers from the state-backed insurer seeking to shed policies, while both companies promote AI-powered underwriting models they say improve speed and accuracy in pricing risk.

Yet the opportunity carries steep dangers. Reinsurers have been reluctant to back Florida carriers, raising costs for protection against catastrophic storms. Meanwhile, climate change has brought heavier rainfall and coastal flooding, according to NOAA, which could magnify liabilities after major weather events.

“The Florida market is either boom or bust,” said Matthew Palazola, an analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence. “You might make an 80% return, or lose so much that you end up insolvent.”

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6. Study Links ALS Progression to Autoimmune Response

Researchers have uncovered evidence that the body’s own immune system may be driving the progression of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), in a breakthrough that could reshape approaches to the fatal neurodegenerative disease.

The study, published Wednesday in Nature by scientists at the La Jolla Institute for Immunology and Columbia University, found that immune cells in ALS patients attack a neuron-associated protein called C9orf72. This autoimmune activity triggers inflammation that accelerates nerve cell loss. It is the first time a specific protein target has been identified in ALS immune responses. Patients appeared to fall into two groups: those with strong inflammatory attacks who deteriorated rapidly, and those with more protective immune activity who lived significantly longer.

The findings raise the possibility of therapies designed to suppress harmful immune reactions while boosting protective cells — a strategy reminiscent of cancer immunotherapies. “This is the first clear demonstration that ALS involves an autoimmune reaction against disease-related proteins,” said Alessandro Sette, co-lead author of the study.

ALS, also known as Lou Gehrig’s disease, is diagnosed in about 15 people daily in the U.S. While most decline quickly, some, like physicist Stephen Hawking, live for decades. Although immune activation has long been observed in ALS, the triggers remained unclear.

Avindra Nath, clinical director at the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke, who was not involved in the study, said the results showed that even patients without a family history mount immune responses to C9orf72 — stronger than to other ALS-linked proteins. He noted that patients with C9orf72 mutations often displayed more pronounced immune activity and tended to survive longer, but cautioned that the findings remain correlational.

ALS has been notoriously resistant to drug development, with only a few approved therapies that provide modest benefits. By pinpointing a specific immune target, the study may ease the path toward precision treatments.

Similar immune mechanisms are now being explored in Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s, suggesting autoimmunity could be a broader driver of neurodegeneration. Still, researchers warned that therapeutic testing remains distant, requiring new disease models and further trials.

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7. Nike Shows Signs of Recovery

Nike Inc., the world’s largest sportswear maker, is beginning to see progress in its turnaround strategy as it refocuses on core categories such as running and basketball.

The company said that new product launches, stronger marketing campaigns, and efforts to clear excess inventory helped ease a prolonged sales slump. The update lifted Nike’s stock as much as 7% on Wednesday. Before the rebound, shares had fallen about 8% this year through Tuesday’s close as investors waited for signs the recovery plan was working.

Nike’s better-than-expected results also boosted European sportswear rivals, with Adidas AG and Puma SE both advancing. For its most recent quarter, Nike reported sales down 1% on a currency-neutral basis — a smaller decline than anticipated.

Strength in wholesale and running footwear, once weak spots, helped drive revenue to $11.7billion, topping Wall Street’s $11billion forecast.

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