Market Beats | US Hiring Slows to Two-Year Low; SpaceX Revenue Projected at $15.5 Billion in 2025; Banks Cut 2025 Oil Price Forecast Below $60; Dollar Tree Warns Q2 Profit May Drop 50% Due to Tariff Costs; Trump Section 899 Tax Clause May Raise Borrowing Costs for US Companies; Trump Tax Bill Would Add $2.42 Trillion to US Deficits Over 10 Years

—— US Hiring Slows to Two-Year Low; SpaceX Revenue Projected at $15.5 Billion in 2025; Banks Cut 2025 Oil Price Forecast Below $60; Dollar Tree Warns Q2 Profit May Drop 50% Due to Tariff Costs; Trump Section 899 Tax Clause May Raise Borrowing Costs for US Companies; Trump Tax Bill Would Add $2.42 Trillion to US Deficits Over 10 Years

1. US Hiring Slows to Two-Year Low

Hiring in the US private sector slowed to the weakest pace in two years as industries including business services and education and health cut jobs, reflecting waning demand for labor.

Private-sector payrolls rose by just 37,000 in May, according to data from ADP Research released Wednesday. The figure came in below all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists and marked the second consecutive month of sharply underperforming forecasts.

“After a strong start to the year, hiring is losing momentum,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, in a statement.

The past two months of heightened uncertainty around President Donald Trump’s shifting economic policies appear to be weighing on business hiring decisions. Job creation has slowed, and unemployed workers are taking longer to find new positions. Economists expect more signs of labor market cooling in the months ahead.

Trade, transportation, and manufacturing also shed jobs in May, while sectors such as leisure and hospitality and financial activities showed modest hiring increases. Regionally, the Northeast lost the most jobs, and both small and large businesses cut payrolls.

Stock futures and Treasury yields declined following the report.

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2. SpaceX Revenue Projected at $15.5 Billion in 2025

SpaceX is projected to generate about $15.5 billion in revenue in 2025, according to a post by CEO Elon Musk on X Tuesday — offering a rare glimpse into the financials of one of the world’s most valuable private companies.

The rocket and satellite company earns revenue from launching services using its Falcon family of rockets and from selling internet service through its Starlink satellite network.

Bloomberg reported in 2023 that SpaceX was projected to bring in $9 billion that year and $15 billion in 2024. In comparison, consultancy Novaspace said in May that SpaceX’s actual 2024 revenue was $11.8 billion. mn

Musk also noted the company earned about $1.1 billion in 2025 through its work with NASA.

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3. Banks Cut 2025 Oil Price Forecast Below $60

Banks are trimming their oil price outlook for 2025, expecting West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to average below $60 a barrel as OPEC+ increases production and global crude demand remains sluggish, according to a survey from law firm Haynes Boone LLP.

The poll of 28 banks forecasts WTI will average $58.30 this year — a 5.8% drop from the firms’ expectations in December. WTI settled at $63.41 on Tuesday.

“We weren’t necessarily surprised to see it drop below $60,” said Kim Mai, a partner at Haynes Boone. “The price deck is always a little bit lower than market prices because banks are conservative in their projections.”

Shale oil executives are watching crude prices closely, as they’re now hovering near levels that could render drilling unprofitable. WTI is down about 11% so far this year, pressured by rising OPEC+ output and mounting concerns that President Donald Trump’s global trade war may dampen demand growth.

The range of forecasts was unusually wide for a short-term outlook, with estimates stretching from the low $50s to about $68 per barrel, she added.

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4. Dollar Tree Warns Q2 Profit May Drop 50% Due to Tariff Costs

Dollar Tree Inc. warned investors that its second-quarter profit could decline by as much as 50% from a year earlier as the company grapples with costs tied to tariffs.

The retailer said the timing of expenses, including paying up to 145% duties on some Chinese imports, will weigh on adjusted earnings per share. However, it expects profit to “re-accelerate” later in the year.

Shares of Dollar Tree fell 2.7% in premarket trading on Wednesday. The stock had climbed 29% this year through Tuesday’s close.

The forecast contrasts with that of rival Dollar General Corp., whose shares surged Tuesday after raising its sales and earnings outlook. While both operate dollar-store chains, their business models differ:

Dollar General gets about 80% of its sales from food and consumable goods — less dependent on imports — whereas Dollar Tree derives half of its revenue from such categories, making it more exposed to foreign sourcing.

Dollar Tree has previously said that the vast majority of its directly imported products come from China, which has been a major focus of tariffs under the Trump administration. On Wednesday, the company said it expects to mitigate most of the “incremental margin pressure” from the higher duties.

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5. Trump’s Section 899 Tax Clause May Raise Borrowing Costs for US Companies

A measure in President Donald Trump’s tax and spending bill aimed at penalizing foreign investors may also inadvertently raise interest costs for some US borrowers.

The so-called Section 899 provision targets countries like Canada, the UK, and France, which have imposed digital services taxes or enacted other corporate tax policies the US views as discriminatory. Under the new rule, investors and companies from those countries may face gradually increasing tax rates on income earned from US assets — a policy some analysts are calling a “revenge tax.”

However, legal experts warn that Section 899 could also affect how loan interest payments are handled — to the detriment of some US borrowers. Many cross-border loan agreements include what are known as “withholding tax gross-up obligations.” These clauses require borrowers to compensate lenders if a new withholding tax is introduced after the loan is signed.

For instance, if a 5% withholding tax is applied, a borrower owing $1,000 in interest would need to pay $50 to the US government. To ensure the lender still receives the full $1,000, the borrower must gross up the payment — which, due to the tax applying to the grossed-up amount, results in a total payment of about $1,053.

This mechanism effectively raises borrowing costs for US companies, particularly those with financing arrangements involving foreign lenders.

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6. Trump Tax Bill Would Add $2.42 Trillion to US Deficits Over 10 Years

The House-passed version of President Donald Trump’s sweeping tax and spending bill would increase US budget deficits by $2.42 trillion over the next decade, according to a new estimate from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

In its official scoring of the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” released Wednesday, the CBO projected a $3.67 trillion drop in expected revenues and a $1.25 trillion reduction in spending through 2034 compared to current baseline forecasts.

The grim outlook could heighten anxiety among GOP fiscal conservatives as the legislation heads to the Senate, where several Republicans have already raised concerns or demanded revisions.

Trump is expected to meet Wednesday with Senate Finance Committee Republicans to strategize on advancing the bill, which narrowly passed the House last month.

Trump administration officials have pushed back on the CBO’s figures, arguing they don’t adequately reflect the potential boost to economic growth from the bill’s tax cuts, tariffs, and deregulatory provisions.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last month he wasn’t concerned about the country’s debt outlook, predicting that a growing GDP — projected to surpass 3% next year — would help ease fiscal pressures.

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7. Nvidia posts 69% revenue surge

Nvidia reported a 69% year-on-year jump in revenue to $44.1 billion for the quarter ending April 27, surpassing Wall Street’s forecast of $43.3 billion, even as it absorbs a major revenue hit from US export restrictions targeting China.

The chipmaker, central to the global AI infrastructure boom, expects revenue of about $45 billion for the current quarter, plus or minus 2%. That range puts its guidance slightly below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of $45.5 billion. Nvidia shares rose 5% in early Thursday trading.

The company is navigating the fallout from President Donald Trump’s renewed trade tensions with China, including export controls introduced in April that barred Nvidia from selling its AI chips specifically tailored for the Chinese market. Nvidia said those curbs led to a $4.5 billion charge last quarter and an additional $2.5 billion in missed sales. The company also expects to lose roughly $8 billion in Chinese revenue this quarter as a result.

CEO Jensen Huang said demand for Nvidia products remains “incredibly strong,” but he reiterated criticism of the US government’s export control measures on a call with analysts.

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