Market Beats | Models from Big Banks Show Higher Chance of Recession; Trump Delays Canada, Mexico Auto Tariffs by One Month; DOJ Probes UC System for Antisemitism; Andurand Hedge Fund Loses All 2024 Gains; Salesforce Ends DEI Hiring Following Trump Order; Biggest NYU Dorm Receives $180 Million Refinancing; Klarna Plans IPO as Early as April

—— Models from Big Banks Show Higher Chance of Recession; Trump Delays Canada, Mexico Auto Tariffs by One Month; DOJ Probes UC System for Antisemitism; Andurand Hedge Fund Loses All 2024 Gains; Salesforce Ends DEI Hiring Following Trump Order; Biggest NYU Dorm Receives $180 Million Refinancing; Klarna Plans IPO as Early as April

1. Models from Big Banks Show Higher Chance of Recession

Financial markets are suggesting an increased likelihood of recession, fueled by tariff-related uncertainty and signals of economic fragility that are unsettling Wall Street.

According to a model from JPMorgan Chase & Co., the market-implied probability of an economic downturn rose to 31% on Tuesday, compared to 17% at the end of November. Indicators such as five-year Treasuries and base metals point to an even higher—essentially 50-50—chance of a contraction. While this scenario remains outside the central forecast, a similar gauge from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. shows recession odds rising to 23% from 14% in January.

“With softer economic activity data in the US and already weaker business and consumer confidence in recent weeks, the tariffs that came into effect on March 4th on Canada, Mexico and China are raising the risk of an even bigger hit to business and consumer confidence going forward,” noted JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou. “In turn this raises the specter of a US recession and markets have naturally priced in higher probability.”

After a tumultuous session on Tuesday, sentiment has soured further as investors and business leaders grapple with the market volatility spurred by President Donald Trump’s threatened tariffs. In his address to Congress on Tuesday night, Trump defended his efforts to reshape global trade, acknowledging the potential for near-term pain.

______

2. Trump Delays Canada, Mexico Auto Tariffs by One Month

President Donald Trump will grant a one-month reprieve from new tariffs on Canadian and Mexican automobile imports, the White House announced Wednesday, following urgent appeals from industry leaders.

“We are going to give a one-month exemption on any autos coming through USMCA,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said, referring to the North American trade agreement Trump negotiated during his first term. “Reciprocal tariffs will still go into effect on April 2, but at the request of the companies involved in USMCA, the president is giving them an exemption for one month so they are not at an economic disadvantage.”

The move illustrates the administration’s broader effort to secure additional automobile factories in the United States, a longstanding priority for the president. According to individuals familiar with the plan, the temporary pause allows automakers time to develop strategies for increasing investment and production within the U.S.

______

3. DOJ Probes UC System for Antisemitism

The Justice Department has launched an investigation into the University of California over potential antisemitism toward Jewish employees, prompted by widespread pro-Palestinian demonstrations on several campuses following the October 2023 attack on Israel by Hamas.

Authorities are examining whether the UC system facilitated an antisemitic hostile work environment for faculty, staff, and other employees. According to the Justice Department, the probe is based on Title VII of the Civil Rights Act, which prohibits employment discrimination based on race, color, national origin, sex, and religion.

By targeting alleged discrimination against university employees, President Donald Trump and the Republican-led Congress are employing a new strategy to potentially influence U.S. university policies. Under former President Joe Biden, the administration used a separate section of the Civil Rights Act—Title VI—to investigate many campuses for discriminatory treatment of Jewish and Islamic students based on their race, color, or national origin.

“The University of California is unwavering in its commitment to combating antisemitism and protecting everyone’s civil rights,” said university spokesperson Stett Holbrook. “We continue to take concrete steps to ensure an environment free of harassment and discrimination for all members of the university community.”

______

4. Andurand Hedge Fund Loses All 2024 Gains

Oil trader Pierre Andurand has wiped out all of his previous year’s gains in the first two months of 2025, continuing a turbulent run in volatile commodities markets.

His flagship Andurand Commodities Discretionary Enhanced fund dropped 24% last month, extending this year’s total decline to 37%, according to individuals familiar with the situation. One source, who asked not to be identified because the data isn’t public, said the fund gained 50% last year.

Because there are no preset risk limits, the Discretionary Enhanced fund is prone to significant swings—setting Andurand apart from larger competitors that have shifted toward more stable performance.

Andurand, known for accurately predicting previous booms and busts in the crude market, is one of the last remaining hedge-fund managers to focus primarily on oil trading. His firm managed roughly $900 million as of late October, although more recent numbers aren’t available.

It’s unclear what triggered this year’s losses, though Andurand has been optimistic on cocoa and copper in recent months. He’s also indicated plans to remain flexible and tactical in oil trades, which the firm revived after a brief exit from the commodity last year.

______

5. Salesforce Ends DEI Hiring Following Trump Order

Salesforce Inc. has discontinued its diversity hiring targets following a series of executive orders signed by President Donald Trump, which aim to end such programs across both the federal government and the private sector.

In its annual financial disclosures filed on Wednesday, the San Francisco-based software giant also omitted earlier references to diversity and inclusion as a “core value” and removed any mention that executive compensation was tied to “employee diversity measures.”

“While we are not specifying representation goals, we remain committed to our core value of equality,” a Salesforce spokesperson said when asked about the company’s hiring policies.

On his first day in office, Trump signed an executive order eliminating diversity-based recruitment within the federal workforce and among its contractors. Salesforce, one of the largest suppliers of software to the US government, is also affected by a subsequent executive order requiring agencies to pressure private companies to abandon their diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives.

Several companies, including Target Corp. and Meta Platforms Inc., have recently scaled back or cut their DEI programs. Parts of Trump’s executive orders on the matter have faced legal challenges in the courts.

______

6. Biggest NYU Dorm Receives $180 Million Refinancing

Apollo Global Management Inc. is providing a $180 million loan to refinance New York University’s largest student housing complex.

Located at 80 Lafayette Street in lower Manhattan, the property—commonly referred to as Lafayette Hall—was built in 1915 and converted to dormitories in 1999. The 17-story building houses 262 units and accommodates more than 1,000 students.

Newmark Group Inc.’s Jordan Roeschlaub and Nick Scribani arranged the financing on behalf of the owner, Corigin Real Estate Group, according to a statement issued Wednesday. Apollo extended the loan through its Athene insurance arm.

Positioned at the convergence of Tribeca, SoHo, and Chinatown, the building is master-leased to NYU. The university recently signed a 10-year lease extension set to begin in 2027, the statement said.

Apollo’s diversified real estate fund has been actively investing in student accommodations, with private fund holdings comprising 30,000 beds across the US, according to its January report. The firm also recently provided financing to refinance two luxury apartment towers on Wall Street.

Demand for student housing remains strong in New York City, where the volume of available rental apartments has reached a 30-month low, as indicated by a Corcoran Group report.

______

7. Klarna Plans IPO as Early as April

Klarna Bank AB is aiming to secure at least $1 billion through a US initial public offering and may file publicly as early as next week, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

The Stockholm-based payments company intends to price the IPO in early April, said the people, who requested anonymity because the details aren’t yet public. Klarna is pursuing a valuation exceeding $15 billion for its listing on the New York Stock Exchange, they said.

Talks are still underway, and the specifics of the IPO—including its timing—could change, the people added. A Klarna representative declined to comment.

The firm confidentially registered for an IPO with the US Securities and Exchange Commission in November, according to a previous statement. Bloomberg News has reported that Klarna is working with a group of roughly 15 banks on the transaction, led by Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley.

Supported by Sequoia Capital, Klarna’s listing would provide a lift for technology IPOs, which have slowed after hitting record levels in 2021. Other fintech players such as Chime Financial Inc. and Zilch Technology Ltd. are also evaluating potential initial share offerings this year.

______