—— Decade of High S&P 500 Returns Could be Over; Morgan Stanley Chairman to Join Disney; Enterprise AI Software Startup Raises $190mn; Trump Relies Heavily on Billionaires in Final Stretch; TSMC Could Raise Antitrust Concerns; Two Mansions of Evergrande Founder Still Not Sold; Walmart-Backed PhonePe Revenue Surges 74%
1. Decade of High S&P 500 Returns Could be Over
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists are warning that U.S. stocks are unlikely to sustain the strong performance they’ve shown over the past decade, as investors increasingly shift toward other assets like bonds for better returns. According to an analysis led by strategist David Kostin, the S&P 500 Index is projected to deliver an annualized nominal total return of just 3% over the next 10 years, significantly lower than the 13% return seen over the past decade and below the long-term average of 11%.
The strategists also estimate a 72% probability that the S&P 500 will underperform Treasury bonds, and a 33% chance that it will trail inflation by 2034.
They caution investors to expect equity returns in the coming decade to be on the lower end of their historical performance range, according to a note dated October 18.
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2. Morgan Stanley Chairman to Join Disney
Walt Disney Co. has named James Gorman, the former CEO of Morgan Stanley, as its new chairman of the board, and announced plans to appoint a new chief executive officer in early 2026. Gorman, who was tasked with overseeing Disney’s succession planning in August, will succeed Mark Parker, who is stepping down from the board on January 2 after nine years of service, according to a statement released on Monday.
Gorman emphasized that appointing a new CEO is a top priority, stating, “We now expect to announce a new CEO in early 2026,” allowing sufficient time for a smooth transition before current CEO Bob Iger’s contract expires in December 2026.
Disney’s CEO succession has been a topic of much speculation. Iger returned as CEO in late 2022 after the removal of his successor, Bob Chapek, for what was initially a two-year term, but Disney has since extended Iger’s contract.
During Iger’s previous tenure, both he and the board negotiated multiple contract extensions over his 15 years as CEO.
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3. Enterprise AI Software Startup Raises $190mn
ZipHQ Inc., a startup focused on developing AI software for businesses, has secured $190 million in funding, boosting its valuation to $2.2 billion. This funding round was led by new investor BOND, with additional backing from firms such as DST Global, Y Combinator, and CRV. The company’s new valuation marks a significant increase from the $1.5 billion it was valued at last year.
Founded by Rujul Zaparde and Lu Cheng, former colleagues at Airbnb Inc., ZipHQ aims to simplify the complex process of business procurement. The company’s software automates manual tasks such as spreadsheets and approval processes across departments like finance, legal, IT, and security, making it easier for businesses to manage purchasing activities. Zaparde emphasized the increasing importance of supplier relationships in business operations, stating, “No business works alone, every enterprise relies on more and more suppliers.”
The newly raised funds will be directed toward expanding Zip’s engineering capabilities and research and development, including the creation of an internal lab to accelerate the development of new AI-powered tools. ZipHQ also plans to expand its presence in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia, following the recent opening of its London office.
The startup already counts prominent companies such as Snowflake Inc., OpenAI, Reddit Inc., and Databricks Inc. among its customers.
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4. Trump Relies Heavily on Billionaires in Final Stretch
Donald Trump, once known for his success in raising small-dollar contributions, is now increasingly reliant on wealthy donors, including billionaires like Elon Musk and Miriam Adelson, to finance his third presidential campaign. His political operation has raised $514.7 million from large donors giving $1 million or more to super PACs, nearly double the $260 million raised from small-dollar donors contributing $200 or less, according to recent Federal Election Commission filings.
While Trump has historically been a master of small-dollar fundraising, the filings reveal a shift. His campaign raised only about one-third of the $321 million that Vice President Kamala Harris secured from donors giving less than $200 during the same period. This helped Harris and the Democratic Party set a record by raising $1.1 billion in the third quarter, more than twice what Trump and the Republicans managed to raise.
The large contributions supporting Vice President Kamala Harris’s fundraising efforts are reportedly coming from donors who prefer to keep their identities private.
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5. TSMC Could Raise Antitrust Concerns
During a discussion with TSMC executives on Thursday, Morgan Stanley’s Charlie Chan raised concerns about the company’s near-monopoly in advanced semiconductor manufacturing and the potential antitrust risks it could face. Chan’s question, which came at the end of an otherwise positive conversation about TSMC’s strong relationship with Nvidia and the broader semiconductor market recovery, highlighted growing investor concerns.
TSMC executives responded by discussing “Foundry 2.0,” a strategy introduced earlier this year. Foundry 2.0 expands TSMC’s role beyond simply manufacturing chips; it also encompasses chip design, packaging, and even marketing for its customers. TSMC has been widening its competitive scope to include a broader range of rivals, not just focusing on Intel and Samsung, two of its key competitors in advanced chipmaking. According to CEO C.C. Wei, when viewed in this broader context, TSMC holds only about 30% of the overall market it competes in.
However, Chan’s question stems from the widespread perception that TSMC dominates almost the entire market for cutting-edge semiconductors, which raises concerns about potential antitrust scrutiny as the company solidifies its leadership position.
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6. Two Mansions of Evergrande Founder Still Not Sold
Nearly a year after being seized by creditors, two adjacent luxury mansions linked to Hui Ka Yan, founder of China Evergrande Group, remain unsold despite being offered at substantial discounts. The properties, located at 10 Black’s Link in Hong Kong, are currently listed for a combined HK$900 million ($116 million), significantly below their previous valuation of over HK$1.5 billion, as reported by local media HK01 in November.
House C, a 5,433-square-foot mansion, is being marketed for HK$470 million, while the smaller 4,933-square-foot House E is listed at HK$430 million, according to a sales brochure by property agent Savills Plc.
The Hong Kong luxury housing market has been hit hard by the city’s property downturn, which has contributed to the difficulty in selling high-end homes.
However, agents are hopeful that recent policy changes, such as allowing home purchases of HK$50 million or more to count toward the New Capital Investment Entrant Scheme, will attract wealthy buyers and help boost sales. This scheme offers a path to residency for high-net-worth individuals.
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7. Walmart-Backed PhonePe Revenue Surges 74%
India’s PhonePe, a digital payments startup backed by Walmart Inc., reported significant financial improvements in its latest fiscal year, with revenue surging and losses narrowing. The Bengaluru-based fintech company saw a 74% year-over-year increase in revenue, reaching 50.64 billion rupees ($602 million). Meanwhile, its net loss decreased by 28%, totaling 19.96 billion rupees, according to the company’s annual report released on Monday.
PhonePe remains a dominant player in India’s Unified Payments Interface (UPI) market, commanding nearly 50% of total transactions. UPI enables instant money transfers by connecting banks with fintech apps like PhonePe, Paytm, and Google Pay (owned by Alphabet Inc.).
As of March 2024, PhonePe had 530 million registered users, with 200 million active on a monthly basis, solidifying its leadership in the digital payments space in India.
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本文内容来自《Financial Times》、《Bloomberg》，以及《The Real Deal》等多家财经新闻媒体。