—— Larry Fink Fears Market Priced in Too Much Rate Cut; Workers at 36 Key US Ports Go on Costly Strikes; Apollo Expects Earnings to Grow to $10bn by 2029; Iran Could Launch Missiles Attack on Israel; Tom Brady to Sell $11mn of Watches and Collectibles; US Job Openings Jump to 3-month High; US Investment-Grade Bonds Returns Posts Strong Quarterly Return
1. Larry Fink Fears Market Priced in Too Much Rate Cut
BlackRock Inc. CEO Larry Fink expressed that the market is overestimating the number of interest rate cuts expected from the Federal Reserve, considering the ongoing growth of the US economy.
“I don’t see any landing,” Fink said during an interview with Bloomberg Television’s Francine Lacqua on Tuesday at the Berlin Global Dialogue 2024 conference. “The amount of easing projected in the forward curve is excessive. I do believe there’s some room for easing, but not to the extent indicated by the forward curve.”
Current money markets suggest a one-in-three chance of a half-point rate cut by the Fed in November, with around 190 basis points of total easing expected by the end of next year. However, Fink argued this outcome is unlikely, as most current government policies are driving inflation rather than reducing it.
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2. Workers at 36 Key US Ports Go on Costly Strikes
For the first time in nearly 50 years, dockworkers have walked out of every major port along the US East and Gulf coasts, staging a strike that could significantly impact the world’s largest economy and create political challenges just weeks before the presidential election.
The 36 affected ports, which together handle up to half of all US trade volume, have ceased container operations and auto shipments. While energy supplies and bulk cargo won’t be directly affected, some exceptions are being made for military goods and cruise ships.
The overall impact of the strike, spanning from Houston to Miami and New York-New Jersey, will largely depend on its duration. According to JPMorgan Chase & Co., the shutdown, which began at 12:01 AM EST on Tuesday, is expected to result in economic losses ranging from $3.8 billion to $4.5 billion per day.
Shipping congestion caused by a week-long strike would take approximately a month to resolve, according to Grace Zwemmer from Oxford Economics.
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3. Apollo Expects Earnings to Grow to $10bn by 2029
Apollo Global Management Inc. projects it will generate $10 billion in annual earnings from its asset management and retirement businesses by 2029, fueled by growing investor demand for private credit and annuities.
According to an investor presentation on Tuesday, Apollo expects fee-related earnings to grow at an average annual rate of 20% over the next five years, with its Athene insurance division’s earnings increasing by 10%. The firm also anticipates adjusted net income of $15 per share within five years, and annual origination volume rising to at least $275 billion, up from $164 billion in the year ending June 30.
Apollo forecasts its assets under management will grow to $1.5 trillion by 2029, maintaining its trajectory toward reaching a previous target of $1 trillion by 2026. As of June 30, the firm managed $696 billion.
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4. Iran Could Launch Missiles Attack on Israel
The US has received indications that Iran is preparing to launch a ballistic missile attack against Israel in the near future, according to a senior White House official.
The US is actively assisting Israel with defense preparations for the potential attack, which would have serious consequences for Iran, said the official, speaking on condition of anonymity.
This warning follows Israel’s military escalation into southern Lebanon as part of its ongoing campaign against Hezbollah, which is backed by Tehran. An Israeli military spokesperson stated that the country is ready for both defensive and offensive actions.
If Iran proceeds with the strike, it would be its second direct attack on Israel in nearly six months. In April, Iran launched hundreds of drones and missiles, most of which were intercepted by air defense systems deployed by Israel and its allies, including the US and UK. Israel’s response was more restrained at the time, and neither side escalated the conflict further.
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5. Tom Brady to Sell $11mn of Watches and Collectibles
Tom Brady’s next record-setting move will happen off the field, at an auction house.
On December 10, the seven-time Super Bowl champion and current Fox Sports broadcaster will auction 47 items from his personal collection of watches and sports memorabilia at Sotheby’s New York. The stand-alone evening sale is titled “The GOAT: Watches and Treasures from Tom Brady.”
The auction will feature 27 watches with a combined estimate of $3 million to $6 million, along with 20 sports-related items expected to fetch between $3 million and $5 million. “This is the right time for him to sell,” said Richard Lopez, a senior watch specialist at Sotheby’s. “The watch market is thriving for single-owner collections, he has unique pieces, and he’s ready to share them with the world.”
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6. US Job Openings Jump to 3-month High
US job openings rose in August to a three-month high, contradicting other data that suggests a slowing demand for workers.
The number of available positions increased to 8.04 million from 7.71 million in July, driven by the largest surge in construction job openings since 2009, along with growth in state and local government sectors, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey released Tuesday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had predicted 7.69 million openings.
Meanwhile, the hiring rate dropped to 3.3%, matching the lowest level since 2013, excluding the early months of the pandemic in 2020. The retail trade and transportation and warehousing sectors saw the largest declines in hiring.
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7. US Investment-Grade Bonds Returns Posts Strong Quarterly Return
US high-grade corporate bonds recorded their first quarterly gain of the year over the past three months, with a return of 5.8%, marking the best performance since the end of 2023, according to a Bloomberg index.
Despite continued strong demand for new bonds, investment-grade notes posted slight quarterly losses, as investors adjusted to the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut cycle being delayed until September. Year-to-date, bond orders have exceeded supply by 3.7 times, and in September, the demand was 5.4 times higher despite a surge in global debt issuance, according to Bloomberg data.
Greater clarity on the Fed’s policy since the spring contributed to lowering Treasury yields to their lowest levels in over a year, enabling high-grade corporate bonds to post gains for five consecutive months.
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本文内容来自《Financial Times》、《Bloomberg》，以及《The Real Deal》等多家财经新闻媒体。