—— Trump convicted on 34 counts; Trump may increase stock market volatility; Japan spends $62 billion to intervene in the yen; TikTok halts European e-commerce plans; Bill Ackman to support Trump; Key U.S. inflation indicators ease; Hang Seng Tech Index enters correction territory
1. Trump convicted on 34 counts
After a 5-week and 2-day trial, the judge convicted Trump on all 34 counts related to falsifying documents, hush money, and covering up important information from the 2016 election.
On Thursday, the judge announced the trial’s outcome at the courthouse in downtown Manhattan, making Trump the first presidential candidate in U.S. history to be a felon.
It remains unclear how the verdict will affect voters’ psychology, but some have already indicated in surveys that they would not vote for Trump if he is indeed guilty.
However, many, including Republican leaders, business magnates, and millions of American citizens, are rallying behind Trump even more.
Trump still needs to participate in three more criminal trials, including one related to his attempt to overturn the results of the 2020 election.
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2. Trump may increase stock market volatility
After former U.S. President Trump was found guilty, there was no significant volatility in the foreign exchange market and U.S. stocks. However, traders believe the verdict will complicate the 2024 election, and market volatility is likely to increase significantly in the next five months.
Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research, stated that while the stock market has usually avoided domestic political turmoil in the U.S., Thursday’s verdict will affect the U.S. political climate, inevitably increasing stock market volatility.
However, some experts believe that the market had long anticipated Trump’s conviction, and this expectation had already been factored into the prices, which is why most asset prices did not plummet.
Trump’s conviction does not necessarily mean he will lose the election.
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3. Japan spends $62 billion to intervene in the yen
According to data released today by Japan’s Ministry of Finance, the government purchased a total of 9.8 trillion yen from April 26 to May 29 for intervention support, exceeding the 9.2 trillion yen in 2022.
Such a large amount highlights the Japanese government’s determination to combat yen short-sellers, while also underscoring that even such a large-scale intervention can only bring temporary and limited effects.
Due to the significant interest rate differential between Japan and the United States, the yen continues to face considerable downward pressure.
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4. TikTok halts European e-commerce plans
Sources reveal that TikTok has paused plans to launch its e-commerce platform in Spain, Germany, Italy, France, and Ireland, surprising and frustrating many European merchants.
ByteDance’s management hopes to focus its efforts on the two most profitable markets, China and the United States, with the latter boasting 170 million monthly users.
A TikTok spokesperson stated that the TikTok Shop platform has had a significant positive impact, and the company’s goal is to expand e-commerce transactions to $17.5 billion this year.
Management believes that expanding e-commerce in Europe may also face local regulatory hurdles.
Source: TikTok Pauses E-Commerce Push into Europe to Focus on US
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5. Bill Ackman to support Trump
Sources reveal that billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman leans towards supporting Trump because his dislike for Biden surpasses his conflicted feelings about Trump.
Last week, Blackstone founder Stephen Schwarzman also publicly announced his support for Trump, as he wants to see a different approach to governance. Schwarzman stated that the worsening of anti-Semitism is one of the reasons he supports the former president.
Numerous Wall Street tycoons are re-aligning to support Trump, primarily because Trump has promised to reduce tax rates and government regulation.
Many analysts believe that with Schwarzman and Ackman taking sides, many undecided individuals will follow suit.
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6. Key U.S. inflation indicators ease
Data released today by the U.S. government shows that the core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (Core PCEPI), excluding energy and food, rose by 0.2% month-over-month in April and 2.8% year-over-year. The increase was slower than in March, which is what the Federal Reserve hoped to see.
Excluding the effects of inflation, consumer spending decreased by 0.1% month-over-month. Although inflation picked up in the first quarter of this year, it now seems to be slowly returning to the right track.
After the data was released, U.S. Treasury yields fell, and S&P 500 futures rose.
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7. Hang Seng Tech Index enters correction territory
Today, the Hang Seng Tech Index reversed its upward trend and closed down 1.7%, marking a 10% correction from its May 20 high, with Meituan and Tencent being the biggest “burdens.”
Thanks to investors’ optimism about corporate earnings, low valuations, and government support, Chinese tech stocks surged sharply in April. However, as investors reconsider geopolitical and trade risks, the stock market has pulled back again.
Investors are concerned that the price war among Chinese tech companies will affect profit margins.
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本文内容来自《Financial Times》、《Bloomberg》，以及《The Real Deal》等多家财经新闻媒体。