— Economists Lower Recession Risk Forecasts; S&P 500 Continues to Break New Highs; Warner Brothers Drops 11%; U.S. Remote High-Paying Jobs Drop; Intuitive Spacecraft Successfully Lands on Moon; A-shares’ Wild Swings Break Quant Models; Elliott Invests $1 Billion to Buy Mining Assets.
1. Nvidia’s Revenue Triples
According to Bloomberg’s monthly survey of economists, they now expect U.S. GDP to grow at a rate of 2.1% this year, up from last month’s estimate of 1.5%.
Additionally, respondents raised the annualized growth rate for consumer spending in the next two years by 0.5% and lowered the risk of a recession to 40%.
While most respondents expect a slowdown in the U.S. economy after the strong performance of 2023, the strong labor market and easing inflation continue to support household consumption.
Respondents expect the unemployment rate to peak at 4.1% this year, slightly lower than last month’s forecast of 4.2%. They also believe that U.S. employers will hire more workers over the next two years.
Economists expect the average core CPI this year to be around 2.4%.
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2. S&P 500 Continues to Break New Highs
Today, U.S. stocks extended their brief rebound, with the S&P 500 index breaking the 5,100-point mark for the first time, fueled by Nvidia’s strong earnings report, the continued AI investment boom, and investors’ optimism about the U.S. economy.
Nvidia, an important player in the S&P 500, also became the first semiconductor company to surpass a market value of $2 trillion.
On Thursday, the S&P 500 index rose 2%, but only 73% of companies within the index saw gains, indicating high concentration. This is the lowest proportion since 2020.
According to Bloomberg data, in typical trading days when the S&P 500 rises by 2%, an average of 92% of the companies within the index tend to increase.
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3. Warner Brothers Falls 11%
Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. reported a 7% decline in its revenue for the fourth quarter of 2023, to $10.3 billion, missing analyst expectations.
TV advertising revenue fell 12% to $1.9 billion, and movie production revenue also dropped 18% to $3.2 billion.
As the parent company of CNN, TNT, and other traditional TV channels, Warner Bros. has been fiercely competing with emerging streaming services. The Hollywood writers and actors’ strike earlier this year also significantly impacted Warner.
Warner has started selling content to platforms like Netflix to generate more revenue.
Source：Bloomberg – Warner Bros. Falls On TV Advertising Woes, Studio Weakness
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4. U.S. Remote High-Paying Jobs Drop Significantly
North American job site Ladders reports that only 10% of jobs with an annual salary of over $200,000 offered remote work options in December, down from 30% in Q3 2022.
The proportion of hybrid work jobs also dropped from 16% in early 2023 to 3%, a trend evident in both tech and non-tech industries.
Ladders market director John Mullinix stated that over 7 million members of the site are seeking six-figure salaries, but they must choose between high-paying jobs and remote work.
Ladders predicts that the healthcare industry will continue to have the most high-paying jobs in the coming decades.
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5. Intuitive’s Spacecraft Successfully Lands on the Moon
On Thursday at 6:23 PM, the lunar lander Odysseus, developed by Intuitive Machines, successfully landed on the moon. This marks the first successful landing of a privately made American spacecraft on the moon since the Apollo missions in 1972.
Intuitive posted on X that Odysseus successfully landed and has started transmitting data.
Driven by the positive news, Intuitive’s stock surged by 19%, and its share price has tripled since the beginning of the year, reaching a market value of $800 million.
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6. A-shares’ Wild Swings Break Quant Models
Over the past two weeks, A-shares have experienced wild swings, with several Chinese quant hedge funds admitting that their models have encountered unprecedented failures.
One fund manager stated that the market has experienced an industry-wide black swan event, while another said their model initially worked but then repeatedly malfunctioned.
The performance of Chinese hedge funds has been underwhelming compared to the broader market, with many funds underperforming the CSI 500 index by 12% in the past two weeks.
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7. Elliott Invests $1 Billion in Mining Assets
Sources reveal that New York-based investment firm Elliott Management will establish a new company, Hyperion, and invest $1 billion to purchase mining assets globally, believing that the industry is currently undervalued.
Hyperion will be led by former Newcrest Mining CEO Sandeep Biswas and an M&A expert in the industry.
Hyperion will also purchase metals, rare metals, and commodities related to electric vehicle production. The price of metals has significantly corrected, but future demand is expected to surge.
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This content is sourced from Financial Times, Bloomberg, and The Real Deal, among other financial news outlets.