Market Beats | Wall Street Bonus Outlook Sours as Tariff Turmoil Derails Deal-Making; NYC Luxury Buyers Unfazed by Market Turmoil from Trump Tariffs; US Labor Productivity Falls for First Time Since 2021 as Output Slips; Burger King Sales Fall in North America as Economic Jitters Hit Fast Food; BlackRock Orders Senior Executives Back to Office Five Days a Week; House Set to Review Trump’s Sweeping Tax Plan Starting Tuesday

—— Wall Street Bonus Outlook Sours as Tariff Turmoil Derails Deal-Making; NYC Luxury Buyers Unfazed by Market Turmoil from Trump Tariffs; US Labor Productivity Falls for First Time Since 2021 as Output Slips; Burger King Sales Fall in North America as Economic Jitters Hit Fast Food; BlackRock Orders Senior Executives Back to Office Five Days a Week; House Set to Review Trump’s Sweeping Tax Plan Starting Tuesday

1. Wall Street Bonus Outlook Sours as Tariff Turmoil Derails Deal-Making

Wall Street professionals are bracing for a bonus slump in 2025 after a robust 2024, as economic uncertainty from President Donald Trump’s trade war and mounting geopolitical tensions dampens deal activity.

According to compensation consultant Johnson Associates Inc., year-end incentive payouts are expected to drop for investment bankers, hedge fund staff, and asset and wealth management professionals. That marks a reversal from last year’s strong bonus cycle, when payouts swelled on surging profits.

“We started 2025 with momentum and optimism, which has quickly changed,” said Alan Johnson, managing director at Johnson Associates. “Now the expectation is pay will be down, moderately, off of a high level.”

The ongoing volatility sparked by Trump’s sweeping tariffs has weighed heavily on mergers and acquisitions, curbing activity that many on Wall Street hoped would surge under a business-friendly administration. Bonuses in M&A advisory are now projected to fall by as much as 10%.

Not all areas are faring poorly. Traders—particularly in equities—are benefiting from the market swings. Bonuses for equity traders could climb 15% to 25%, while fixed-income traders may see gains of 10% to 20%.

Overall, however, the report signals a sobering mood on Wall Street: despite early-year optimism, the expected boom in deal-making has failed to materialize amid policy-driven uncertainty.

______

2. NYC Luxury Buyers Unfazed by Market Turmoil from Trump Tariffs

Despite a month of stock market volatility driven by President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, homebuyers in New York City forged ahead with purchases.

In April, contracts to buy co-ops, condos, and one-to-three-family homes in Manhattan surged 41% compared to the same month in 2024, according to data from Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman. In Brooklyn, signed deals jumped 36%.

“The wealthy are just not that worried about it,” said Douglas Elliman agent Noble Black, who is currently listing a $90 million penthouse at 432 Park Avenue. “For the most part, they’re still going to have their jobs and still have money and still be looking for an apartment. It’s not going to be a drastic change.”

While the Trump administration’s trade wars may be casting a shadow over the broader US housing market, Manhattan’s affluent buyers are pressing on.

______

3. US Labor Productivity Falls for First Time Since 2021 as Output Slips

US labor productivity declined in the first quarter for the first time in nearly three years, breaking a string of efficiency gains that had helped offset the inflationary impact of rising employment costs.

According to data released Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nonfarm business employee output per hour fell at an annualized rate of 0.8%, following a revised 1.7% increase in the fourth quarter of 2024.

As a result of the productivity decline, unit labor costs — the cost to businesses of producing one unit of output — surged 5.7% in the January-March period, marking the largest jump in a year.

The drop in productivity was driven largely by a 0.3% decline in business output, echoing recent GDP data that highlighted a trade-driven contraction, even as total hours worked increased.

In the near term, productivity improvements may remain under pressure as firms pause or reassess investments amid continued uncertainty over US trade and tax policy.

______

4. Burger King Sales Fall in North America as Economic Jitters Hit Fast Food

Burger King’s same-store sales in North America dropped 1.3% in the first quarter, a steeper decline than analysts expected, as economic uncertainty and job insecurity led consumers to dine out less.

Restaurant Brands International Inc., the Toronto-based parent of Burger King, also saw sales declines at its Tim Hortons and Popeyes locations in North America. Although international demand was stronger, overall revenue and adjusted earnings per share missed Wall Street forecasts.

The results underscore the pressure US consumers are facing amid President Donald Trump’s trade war. Even promotions like $1 cheeseburgers failed to offset reduced restaurant traffic. Rivals including McDonald’s, Wendy’s, and Chipotle have also cited economic anxiety as a drag on recent performance.

US-listed shares of Restaurant Brands fell about 3% in premarket trading Thursday. The stock had gained 4.2% year-to-date as of Wednesday.

______

5. BlackRock Orders Senior Executives Back to Office Five Days a Week

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, is mandating that its approximately 1,000 managing directors worldwide return to the office full time, according to people familiar with the matter — signaling a continued shift away from flexible work arrangements in the financial services industry.

The New York-based firm, which already tightened attendance rules last year to require four days in-office per week, will now require senior leaders to be physically present every weekday. BlackRock declined to comment on the decision.

The move is intended to enhance collaboration and ensure that senior leaders are visibly managing teams and servicing clients in person, one source said. More junior staff will still be allowed to work from home one day a week.

CEO Larry Fink has previously warned that remote work risks weakening corporate culture, aligning with other Wall Street leaders who are pushing for a fuller return to in-person operations.

______

6. House Set to Review Trump’s Sweeping Tax Plan Starting Tuesday

The House Ways and Means Committee will begin reviewing President Donald Trump’s wide-ranging tax proposal on Tuesday, signaling that Republicans are nearing agreement on major provisions, according to people familiar with the matter.

Key components under discussion include expanding the deduction for state and local taxes (SALT) and tightening the estate tax. Once approved by the panel—potentially over several days—the tax changes will be merged with other parts of the broader legislative package for a full House vote, which GOP leaders have targeted for the end of May.

With little margin for error, Trump must secure support from nearly all House Republicans to pass the legislation in the chamber.

______

7. US-China to Hold First Trade Talks Since Tariff War Began

Washington and Beijing are set to hold their first high-level trade talks this week since President Donald Trump launched a sweeping trade war that has rattled global financial markets and raised alarms over supply chain security.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will meet with their Chinese counterparts in Geneva, with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng — the country’s top economic policymaker — leading Beijing’s delegation.

This marks the first formal engagement between the two sides since Chinese Vice President Han Zheng attended Trump’s inauguration in January.

Bessent told Fox News on Tuesday that the meetings would take place over the weekend and that both sides had a “shared interest” in engaging because the current 145% US tariff level “isn’t sustainable.” However, he emphasized that the talks are aimed at easing tensions rather than striking a comprehensive trade deal.

“My sense is that this will be about de-escalation, not about the big trade deal,” Bessent said. “We’ve got to de-escalate before we can move forward.”

This diplomatic thaw offers a glimmer of hope to businesses on both sides of the Pacific that have been struggling with unprecedented trade barriers. It also follows several occasions where Trump claimed negotiations were ongoing — only to be contradicted by his own advisers.

The talks represent the first substantive step toward resolving a tariff standoff that has seen the US impose a 145% levy on Chinese imports, with China responding with a 125% duty on American goods.

______