1. JPMorgan Recession Probability Doubles
2. Hertz to Sell 20,000 EVs
3. Google Lays Off Hundreds More
4. Bitcoin ETFs See Explosive First-Day Volume
5. Argentina Inflation Tops 200%
6. U.S. Credit Card Delinquencies Hit 10-Year High
7. Ex-Goldman Manager Sues Over Mental Health
1. JPMorgan Recession Probability Doubles
PMorgan’s internal models show that the implied probability of a recession, as of this Tuesday, has jumped from 17% at the end of November to 31%. For five-year Treasuries and base metals, the implied risk exceeds 50%.
Goldman Sachs also revised its recession forecast upward—from 14% in January to 23%.
Donald Trump’s tariff policy has added significant uncertainty to the U.S. economy, making it difficult for institutions and businesses to plan ahead. Market sentiment remains cautious as a result.
Recent data also shows a stagnation in U.S. factory orders and a decline in employment numbers.
Source：Bloomberg – Wall Street Banks Say Markets Are Flashing Rising Recession Risk
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2. Hertz to Sell 20,000 EVs
In a regulatory filing today, Hertz Global Holdings announced that it sold 20,000 electric vehicles last month and plans to offload a third of its U.S. EV fleet over the course of the year.
Hertz cited low demand, high maintenance costs, and poor residual values as key reasons. The company recorded a $245 million non-cash depreciation expense in Q4.
Back in 2021, Hertz committed to buying 100,000 Teslas. But now, the “gas-to-electric” trend has sharply reversed.
In Q4 2023, U.S. EV sales rose just 1.3%, weighed down by high interest rates and maintenance costs.
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3. Google Lays Off Hundreds More
Sources say Google plans to cut hundreds of employees in its voice assistant, AR hardware, and engineering teams to reduce costs and refocus on AI.
Google’s core search engine is under increasing pressure from Microsoft and OpenAI. The company aims to develop ChatGPT-style AI features.
Following the news, Google’s stock rose 2.1% to $145.22—its highest level in nearly two years.
In January 2023, Google laid off 12,000 employees globally. Since then, it has conducted multiple smaller rounds, targeting hiring, news, and Waze product teams.
Alphabet Workers Union publicly criticized the move on social media.
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4. Bitcoin ETFs See Explosive First-Day Volume
Today, 11 U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs officially began trading, generating $3.5 billion in volume by 1 p.m. ET. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) alone accounted for $880 million.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Athanasios Psarofagis called the launch unprecedented and said demand was clearly strong.
This marks the first time over ten similar ETFs debuted on the same day.
Within just three hours of trading, Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust became the third most-traded ETF in history.
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5. Argentina Inflation Tops 200%
According to official data released today, Argentina’s December CPI surged 211.4% year-over-year, and 25.5% from the prior month—slightly below economists’ 30% forecast.
Newly elected President Javier Milei devalued the peso by 54%, abolished price controls on many goods, and halted money printing.
In December, food and beverage prices led the increase, followed by clothing and housing. Economists warn that Milei’s policies could result in years of entrenched inflation and economic contraction.
Despite the inflation spike, Argentina’s benchmark interest rate was lowered to 100%.
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6. U.S. Credit Card Delinquencies Hit 10-Year High
A new report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reveals that U.S. credit card delinquency rates have surpassed pre-pandemic levels. For the first time since 2019, 10% of consumers are making only minimum payments.
As of the end of September, 3.2% of credit card balances were over 30 days delinquent—the highest in a decade. Delinquencies over 60 and 90 days also rose.
In response, many banks are now less likely to approve credit limit increases and more likely to cut existing limits.
More than 10% of cardholders carry balances over $5,000.
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7. Ex-Goldman Manager Sues Over Mental Health
Ian Dodd, a 55-year-old former manager at Goldman Sachs, has sued the bank, claiming that a chaotic work environment caused him severe physical and mental health issues.
The case is set for trial in 2025. Dodd is seeking $1.3 million in damages. He served as head of recruitment at Goldman’s London office from 2018 to 2021.
He says the job gave him severe depression and heart problems due to relentless demands and excessive hours.
Dodd’s lawyer stated in court filings that the workload was “excessive,” and senior management failed to offer support—leading Dodd to contemplate suicide.
In 2021, several junior analysts revealed they were working over 100 hours per week.
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This content is sourced from Financial Times, Bloomberg, and The Real Deal, among other financial news outlets.