—— US Workforce to be Expanding at Much Slower Pace; Kamala Leads or Ties in All Battleground States; Fed Favored Inflation Gauge Gains Mildly; Italy Considers Charging Tourist Tax; Dollar General Customers Hit Bad by Inflation; Goldman Sachs to Cut Hundreds of Staff in Following Weeks; Dell Shares Jump Amid High Demand in AI Servers
1. US Workforce to be Expanding at Much Slower Pace
According to the latest projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the U.S. labor market is expected to grow at an annual rate of 0.4% through 2033, which is less than a third of the growth rate seen in the previous decade. This slower growth rate will result in an addition of approximately 6.7 million jobs over the next decade, or about 55,000 jobs per month.
The primary factor contributing to this slowdown is the slower rate of population growth. The BLS estimates that the “non-institutional population,” which excludes groups like prisoners and military personnel, will increase by 16.4 million by 2033. This figure is about 5 million less than the growth seen in the last decade, marking the slowest growth rate since the BLS began tracking this data in 1948.
One significant consequence of this demographic shift is an increase in the proportion of older individuals within the population. As older individuals are less likely to be employed, this demographic change is expected to decrease the overall labor force participation rate by 1.4 percentage points, bringing it down to 61.2% over the decade. This decline is anticipated to affect both men and women.
______
2. Kamala Leads or Ties in All Battleground States
Kamala Harris has maintained her momentum in the presidential race, leading or tying with Republican Donald Trump in each of the seven states most likely to decide the outcome.
According to a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll conducted after last week’s Democratic National Convention across these battleground states, Harris has either narrowed or reversed Trump’s previous advantage on key economic issues and is now considered more trustworthy than her rival in protecting personal freedoms.
Currently, Harris leads by 2 percentage points among registered voters across the seven key states. Among likely voters, she is ahead by 1 point, which is considered a statistical tie, especially as the margin of error is 1 percentage point across these states.
Harris’s candidacy appears to be reshaping the potential paths to an Electoral College victory, challenging traditional battlegrounds and bringing Sun Belt states like Georgia and Nevada into contention, in contrast to the dynamics observed under President Joe Biden’s candidacy.
______
3. Fed Favored Inflation Gauge Gains Mildly
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, saw a moderate increase in July, rising by 0.2% from June and moving at a three-month annualized pace of 1.7%—its slowest rate this year, according to data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This measure excludes the more volatile food and energy prices to provide a clearer view of underlying inflation trends.
Additionally, July witnessed an uptick in household spending, although income growth lagged and the saving rate dipped, which could cast doubts on the sustainability of consumer spending.
These economic indicators are likely reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s inclination to begin easing interest rates next month. This stance is supported by signs of emerging weaknesses in the labor market and a consistent deceleration in inflation, aligning with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent statement that “the time has come” to start reducing the restrictive nature of current monetary policy.
______
4. Italy Considers Charging Tourist Tax
Italy is considering a significant increase in tourist taxes as a strategy to boost revenue for financially strapped cities and to promote responsible tourism amidst rising concerns about overtourism. This proposed tax could see charges of up to €25 per night for guests in the most luxurious hotel rooms.
The proposal has met with considerable opposition from the hotel and travel industry. Federalberghi, an association that represents small- and medium-sized hotels, argues that the focus should be on fostering growth rather than impeding it. Similarly, Barbara Casillo, director of Confindustria Alberghi—which represents larger hotels and global chains—expressed concerns in an interview about Italy’s competitive stance against other European destinations.
She emphasized that high tourist taxes might deter visitors, portraying an unwelcoming image and potentially harming the nation’s tourism sector. Casillo stressed the importance of being cautious with policy decisions that could impact the perception and attractiveness of Italy as a travel destination.
Source: Financial Times – Italy weighs sharp tourist tax rise in furore over impact of visitors
______
5. Dollar General Customers Hit Bad by Inflation
Dollar General has reported a significant downturn in its financial performance, attributing the slump to the economic distress faced by its primary customer base—low-income American households. This group is increasingly running out of money towards the end of each month, exacerbated by years of inflation and the depletion of savings accumulated during the pandemic. This situation contributed to the company’s shares plummeting by over 30% in their most significant single-day drop on record.
The company, which operates over 20,000 stores across 48 states, noted that these financial pressures are particularly acute in rural towns and poorer urban areas where its stores are typically located. Dollar General’s stores, which primarily sell a variety of food items and household goods at low prices, have also experienced an increase in shrink—industry terminology for inventory losses, including shoplifting.
Todd Vasos, CEO of Dollar General, highlighted that about 60% of the chain’s sales come from households earning less than $35,000 annually. He noted that these consumers are “financially constrained,” feeling worse off now than they were six months ago due to rising prices, softer employment levels, and increasing borrowing costs—all factors negatively impacting the sentiment among low-income consumers.
______
6. Goldman Sachs to Cut Hundreds of Staff in Following Weeks
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is set to lay off a few hundred employees soon, as part of its routine process to manage low-performing staff, according to sources familiar with the matter. This move is anticipated to result in a total workforce reduction of about 3% to 4% for the year 2024, aligning with reductions conducted earlier in the year.
This approach is typical for Goldman, as the firm regularly assesses its workforce to control costs and create opportunities to bring in new talent. The practice, which adjusts the staff size by about 1% to 5% annually, was temporarily paused during the peak of the Covid pandemic and resumed more modestly last year.
As of midyear, Goldman Sachs employed approximately 44,300 people. A spokesperson for the bank noted that this annual staff review is a standard procedure, and emphasized that the company expects to have a larger workforce by the end of 2024 compared to the previous year.
The company’s stock has seen significant growth, reaching an all-time high this week with a more than 32% increase, closing at over $510 on Friday. This performance positions Goldman Sachs as the top performer among major U.S. banks. The Wall Street Journal reported on these developments earlier in the day.
______
7. Dell Shares Jump Amid High Demand in AI Servers
Bill Ackman is actively working to rejuvenate the initial public offering (IPO) of Pershing Square USA by proposing attractive incentives to early investors, addressing a major obstacle that initially hindered the float. Following weak demand, Ackman had pulled the IPO of this new U.S. investment fund last month.
Initially, the IPO aimed for a $25 billion listing on the New York Stock Exchange for this closed-end fund, which would have ranked among the largest IPOs ever. However, due to insufficient interest, Ackman reduced the fundraising target drastically to just $2 billion, leading to the withdrawal of the listing.
In efforts to revive investor interest, Ackman is considering a revised structure that includes extra benefits with the stock of Pershing Square USA. Among the discussed options, one would allow early investors the chance to acquire additional shares in the future at a predetermined price through warrants.
Moreover, a significant draw for investors could be the opportunity to purchase shares in the eventual IPO of Ackman’s hedge fund, Pershing Square Capital Management. This fund oversees investments for both the proposed U.S. vehicle and Ackman’s existing European fund.
______
本文内容来自《Financial Times》、《Bloomberg》，以及《The Real Deal》等多家财经新闻媒体。