—— US Consumer Delinquency Risks Rise; China and US Financial Officials to Meet in Shanghai; US Fears Iran May Attack Soon; Janus Henderson Buys Majority Stakes in Victory Park; Lower Manhattan Hotel Occupancy Hits New High; Marathon Digital to Issue Notes to Buy Bitcoin; Carlyle Explores Sale of Chemical Producer Nobian
1. US Consumer Delinquency Risks Rise
Concerns among U.S. consumers about falling behind on their bills are growing, with delinquency expectations reaching their highest point since the pandemic began.
According to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey released on Monday, the average probability that consumers might miss a minimum debt payment within the next three months increased to 13.3%, the highest level since April 2020. This financial stress is particularly evident among individuals earning less than $50,000 annually and those with a high school education or less.
The survey also indicated that perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago have worsened, and expectations for household spending growth have dropped to their lowest in over three years.
As for the labor market, workers’ perspectives were mixed. While Americans are less worried about job loss and rising unemployment over the next year, they believe it will be more challenging to find a job if they do become unemployed.
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2. China and US Financial Officials to Meet in Shanghai
Senior U.S. and Chinese economic officials are set to meet in Shanghai this week for discussions, marking their first formal meeting since China’s leaders outlined their long-term economic priorities at a key conference held every five years.
The discussions, part of the so-called Financial Working Group, are scheduled for August 15-16 and will address topics such as macroeconomic and financial stability, the governance of the International Monetary Fund, and capital market issues, according to a Treasury spokesperson.
The U.S. delegation will include officials from the Treasury Department, the Federal Reserve, and the Securities and Exchange Commission. Notably, Nellie Liang, a Treasury undersecretary with expertise in financial stability from her previous role at the Fed, will be among the attendees.
One of the topics on the agenda will be swap arrangements involving the People’s Bank of China. China’s central bank has established numerous agreements with other emerging and developed markets over time as part of a broader effort to promote the yuan’s international role. While the Federal Reserve also maintains a few swap lines, it does not have any with China.
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3. US Fears Iran May Attack Soon
U.S. officials believe that an Iranian attack against Israel has become increasingly likely and could occur as soon as this week, according to statements made by officials. In a briefing on Monday, White House spokesman John Kirby emphasized that the U.S. and its allies must be ready for what could be a “significant set of attacks.”
Israel shares this concern, with expectations growing that Iran and its proxies might launch an attack soon. Kirby’s remarks represent the strongest indication yet that an attack could be imminent. The delay in such an action has been surprising to some, especially given that Iran has threatened retaliation for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran—a killing for which Israel has not claimed responsibility.
In response, allied nations are making concerted efforts to prevent an Iranian strike, fearing that it could trigger a broader regional conflict. These efforts have included attempts to revive cease-fire negotiations related to the ongoing conflict in Gaza between Israel and Hamas.
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4. Janus Henderson Buys Majority Stakes in Victory Park
Janus Henderson has secured a deal to acquire a controlling interest in a $6 billion alternative investments firm, marking the latest move by a traditional asset manager to expand its private credit offerings in response to increasing investor demand.
The British-American firm, which manages approximately $361 billion in assets, announced on Monday that it is acquiring a 55 percent stake in Chicago-based Victory Park Capital Advisors through a combination of cash and company stock. The agreement includes a “defined path” to eventual full ownership, though the financial details of the transaction were not disclosed.
This acquisition follows Janus Henderson’s recent agreement to purchase the alternative investments division of the National Bank of Kuwait, a transaction expected to be completed by the end of the year. Janus Henderson, along with other asset managers, is striving to broaden its range of private credit investment opportunities, which are increasingly in demand.
“Asset-backed lending has become a significant market opportunity within private credit, as clients seek to diversify their private credit exposure beyond direct lending,” said Ali Dibadj, Janus Henderson’s CEO. “VPC’s expertise in private credit and insurance aligns with our clients’ growing needs and supports our strategic goal to diversify and strengthen our existing capabilities in securitised finance.”
Source: Financial Times – Janus Henderson expands private credit footprint with stake in $6bn boutique
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5. Lower Manhattan Hotel Occupancy Hits New High
Hotel occupancy rates in Lower Manhattan have reached unprecedented levels this year, even as office leasing in the area has slowed down.
According to a report from the Alliance for Downtown New York, hotels in the area achieved an occupancy rate of 89 percent in the second quarter of 2024.
This figure represents the highest on record for the neighborhood and marks a significant rise in both quarterly and annual growth.
Source: Commercial Observer – Lower Manhattan’s Hotel Occupancy Rate Hits Record High as Office Leasing Stalls
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6. Marathon Digital to Issue Notes to Buy Bitcoin
Marathon Digital Holdings Inc., a leading Bitcoin mining company in the U.S., has announced plans to sell $250 million in convertible senior notes, with the proceeds earmarked for purchasing additional Bitcoin.
In July, Marathon revealed it was adopting a strategy similar to that of MicroStrategy Inc., a company known for accumulating large amounts of Bitcoin, partly betting on the cryptocurrency’s price increase.
Marathon is among several public mining companies that have resumed increasing their Bitcoin holdings following the April “halving”—a software code adjustment that reduced mining revenue. In 2022, many miners had to sell off their Bitcoin reserves to survive amid high energy costs and industry downturns.
Bitcoin miners generate the cryptocurrency by solving complex computational puzzles, which allows them to process transactions on the Bitcoin blockchain in exchange for rewards.
The “hodling” strategy, as it’s known in the crypto world, can position public mining companies as leveraged proxies for Bitcoin prices in the stock market. This approach can also potentially boost their share prices, providing miners with a critical source of financing, according to Ethan Vera, chief operating officer at Luxor Technology.
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7. Carlyle Explores Sale of Chemical Producer Nobian
Ares Management Corp. is exploring a potential acquisition of industrial manufacturer Form Technologies, according to people familiar with the matter.
The investment firm is considering financing the deal through a combination of preferred equity and common shares and is seeking a co-investor to participate in the equity portion, these sources said.
Jefferies Financial Group Inc. has been reaching out to investors about a debt package to help fund the buyout of Form Technologies, which is currently backed by Partners Group Holding AG. The debt package includes a $650 million term loan, which is being pitched with an interest rate of approximately 450 to 500 basis points over the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), according to the sources.
Deliberations are ongoing, and the pricing terms on the loan could still change. Additionally, Ares may ultimately decide not to pursue the deal, the sources added, asking to remain anonymous due to the confidential nature of the information.
Form Technologies has been exploring strategic options, including a potential sale, as it faces around $900 million of debt maturing next year, as reported by Bloomberg News in April.
Source: Financial Times – Carlyle explores €3bn sale of Dutch salt and chemicals producer Nobian
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本文内容来自《Financial Times》、《Bloomberg》，以及《The Real Deal》等多家财经新闻媒体。