Market Beats | SoftBank Stock Plunges as AI Bubble Fears and Reliance on OpenAI Grow; JPMorgan Private Bank Forecasts S&P 500 at 7,400 in 2026; Major High-Rise Fire in Hong Kong Kills 36, 279 Missing; US Airlines Brace for Record Thanksgiving Travel Amid System Strain; Bitcoin Bounces Above 90K Dollars as Bullish Sentiment Returns; FedEx to Cut Hundreds of Jobs in Texas Following Customer Loss; NYC Affordable Housing Facing Default

—— SoftBank Stock Plunges as AI Bubble Fears and Reliance on OpenAI Grow; JPMorgan Private Bank Forecasts S&P 500 at 7,400 in 2026; Major High-Rise Fire in Hong Kong Kills 36, 279 Missing; US Airlines Brace for Record Thanksgiving Travel Amid System Strain; Bitcoin Bounces Above 90K Dollars as Bullish Sentiment Returns; FedEx to Cut Hundreds of Jobs in Texas Following Customer Loss; NYC Affordable Housing Facing Default

1. SoftBank Stock Plunges as AI Bubble Fears and Reliance on OpenAI Grow

SoftBank Group Corp. has seen its shares plunge approximately 40% since late October, erasing over $102 billion (¥16 trillion) in market capitalization, as mounting unease over frothy artificial intelligence valuations weighs heavily on the stock. Traders increasingly view SoftBank as a direct proxy for the privately held OpenAI, leaving the Japanese tech investor vulnerable to any signs that the AI sector bubble may be bursting. This vulnerability is compounded by worries about new competitive pressure on OpenAI following Alphabet Inc.’s recent Gemini 3.0 debut.

Despite this global AI selloff, founder Masayoshi Son is preparing to double down on OpenAI and the foundational infrastructure that supports it. This investment strategy comes even though the company’s massive exposure is a double-edged sword: SoftBank recently posted a surprise ¥2.5 trillion net income for the fiscal second quarter, largely fueled by a significant $14.6 billion gain on its OpenAI stake. The company is actively executing deals, with its stock rising as much as 8% on Wednesday after it completed its $6.5 billion purchase of US chip designer Ampere Computing LLC.

Nevertheless, SoftBank faces steep financial commitments in the near future. It must finance a $22.5 billion payment due to OpenAI in December—part of the total $32 billion committed to the ChatGPT developer—and must also cover the proposed $5.4 billion acquisition of ABB Ltd.’s robotics unit.

While SoftBank has ridden the AI investment boom faster than any other Japanese company, the billions it is committing to the industry simultaneously leaves it highly exposed to any indication that OpenAI could lose its leading technological edge.

______

2. JPMorgan Private Bank Forecasts S&P 500 at 7,400 in 2026

The recent 4% surge in US stocks over four days has quieted warnings of a market correction, leading equity bulls to regain confidence. Adding to the positive sentiment, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s private bank is forecasting that the S&P 500 Index—which has already gained 16% this year following robust returns in the prior two—is poised to continue its strong multiyear performance into 2026.

The firm’s base-case view is that a re-acceleration in economic growth, strong corporate earnings, and the steady development of artificial intelligence (AI) technology will propel the S&P 500 up to 7,400 next year, representing a roughly 9% gain from current levels. Furthermore, if these tailwinds prove exceptionally strong, the index could potentially soar as high as 8,200, implying a 20% surge by the end of 2026.

This optimistic outlook arrives amid lingering Wall Street concerns over AI valuations and economic sluggishness. However, JPM strategists Jacob Manoukian and Stephen Parker argue that the recent market turbulence—which saw the S&P 500 briefly dip 5% from its October record—actually confirms that the market is not exhibiting the euphoria typically associated with asset bubbles. Parker noted that the firm views the dip as a “buying opportunity” for clients currently holding substantial cash, while acknowledging that it may not necessarily mark the absolute bottom.

Looking ahead, the bank favors Technology and Utilities as top sectors for 2026, anticipating they will be the primary beneficiaries of the ongoing AI boom. Other sectors poised for good performance include Healthcare, Industrials, and Financials, driven by catalysts such as market broadening and deal-making. Additionally, the firm is advising clients to incorporate diversifiers and “shock absorbers” like infrastructure, real assets, and gold to help guard against inflation. They also stress the need for private markets exposure, arguing that thematic investing requires access to the most dynamic and innovative sectors of the AI ecosystem currently found outside of public markets.

This positive private bank view is consistent with the firm’s investment bank equity research team, where strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas projects the S&P 500 will rise to 7,500 points by the end of 2026, and potentially reach 8,000 if cooling inflation allows the Federal Reserve to implement more aggressive interest-rate cuts.

______

3. Major High-Rise Fire in Hong Kong Kills 36, 279 Missing

Hong Kong rescue workers are currently battling a major fire at a high-rise complex in the northern part of the city that has resulted in at least 36 fatalities and 279 people missing. Chinese President Xi Jinping has urged an all-out effort to reduce casualties, while Chief Executive John Lee stated at a media briefing that 29 people were hospitalized, with seven in critical condition. This blaze is Hong Kong’s worst since 41 people died in a Kowloon fire in 1996.

The fire struck the Wang Fuk Court complex, which is an eight-tower government-subsidized housing estate built in the 1980s, estimated to house nearly 5,000 residents across close to 2,000 units. Public broadcaster Radio Television Hong Kong reported that residents in several buildings had called to report they were unable to escape. President Xi also asked other local governments to aid Hong Kong as it manages the disaster.

While the cause of the fire has not yet been identified, Secretary for Security Chris Tang announced that a criminal investigation will be pursued. Tang described the situation as “unusual,” noting that protective netting, fire-resistant cloth, and plastic sheeting on the building’s exterior—installed as part of an ongoing lengthy renovation—”burned far more intensely and spread much faster than compliant materials normally would.”

The incident highlights the vulnerability of Hong Kong estates, which are densely populated, often housing multi-generational families in small apartments.

______

4. US Airlines Brace for Record Thanksgiving Travel Amid System Strain

US airlines are bracing for what is anticipated to be the busiest Thanksgiving travel period on record, severely testing an aviation system that has only recently recovered from disruptions caused by the government shutdown. Industry group Airlines for America expects US airlines to carry a record of more than 31 million passengers from November 21 through December 1. The US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), meanwhile, expects this to be the busiest Thanksgiving in 15 years.

This annual mass migration spectacle is set to wear on the system’s durability due to a confluence of challenges, including persistent air-traffic controller shortages, calamitous winter weather brewing in the Pacific Northwest and Midwest, fuel-supply constraints, sporadic tech outages, and the stress of the REAL ID requirements rollout. For example, United Airlines Holdings Inc. expects to serve about 6.6 million customers, the most passengers it has ever carried during this holiday period.

Aviation experts note that factors like cramped spaces on the plane, long security lines, and checked bag fees already make travel in a standard economy seat “so unpleasant,” often leading to “tempers flare” at the airport. Footage of long lines and brawling passengers has made air travel feel like a survival sport and airports like dystopian zones that should best be avoided.

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy is leveraging the Thanksgiving rush to call for more civility, urging travelers to “dress up to go to the airport, help a stranger out, and be in a good mood” in an effort to insert much-needed decorum back into the act of travel.

______

5. Bitcoin Bounces Above 90K Dollars as Bullish Sentiment Returns

Bitcoin has climbed above 90K dollars for the first time in almost a week, clawing back ground after a more than a month-long selloff. The advance comes amid a broad rally in risk assets and easing volatility, driven by growing conviction that the Federal Fed may soon resume cutting interest rates. BlackRock’s US Bitcoin ETF attracted fresh inflows, snapping a streak of redemptions.

While liquidity remains thin ahead of the Thanksgiving break, volatility is ebbing, leading bulls to test whether the worst of the drawdown has passed. Despite the retreat of as much as 36 percent since the record high reached in early October, implied volatility has remained contained. This shift reflects how the token’s institutionalization is reshaping risk transmission, contrasting with its early history dominated by speculation on large price swings. Jasper De Maere, desk strategist at Wintermute, noted that “This week’s high 80K dollars Bitcoin level has served as consolidation support level.”

A decisive reversal of bearish sentiment is reflected across derivatives markets. Bitcoin perpetual futures are seeing more demand for long positions, with the positive funding rate suggesting bullish bets are back in the majority after flipping negative earlier this week.

Furthermore, call options at the strike of 100K dollars are now seeing the most open interest, shifting focus away from downside protection around 80K and 85K dollars that had dominated the market over the last week.

______

6. FedEx to Cut Hundreds of Jobs in Texas Following Customer Loss

FedEx Corp. plans to cut hundreds of jobs in Texas after a third-party logistics customer opted to move its business to a new location and a different company. The Memphis-based courier will discontinue its operation of a Coppell, Texas, supply chain and logistics site and dismiss the 856 people who work there in phases, with the reductions scheduled to be completed by late April.

FedEx said in the notice that this action is “necessitated solely by our customer’s decision to transition its business to a new location that will be managed by a new third-party logistics provider,” without identifying the customer. The company noted it informed employees in advance and that some workers will be eligible for other roles within the company. FedEx also committed to providing “job placement assistance, relocation aid, or severance, as applicable.”

The move comes toward the end of a turbulent year for the logistics industry, which has been jolted by trade policies that have strained key shipping lanes, especially between the US and China.

FedEx is also undergoing a restructuring to merge its air and ground shipping operations into a single network. The affected logistics business is separate from the company’s larger parcel delivery operation.

______

7. NYC Affordable Housing Facing Default

New York City’s next mayor will need to spend 1 billion dollars to prevent owners of affordable housing units from defaulting due to surging costs, a predicament that will become even more dire if rents are frozen, according to the New York Housing Conference. The nonprofit reports that tens of thousands of the city’s 213,000 subsidized affordable units are currently under distress, with expenses far outpacing rent income.

The conference warns that Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani’s proposal to freeze rents on New York’s 1 million rent-stabilized apartments risks pushing publicly financed affordable housing landlords closer to default. These owners, unlike others, lack market-rate units to offset losses. The executive director of the Housing Conference stated that widespread defaults would impact the Housing Development Corporation’s borrowing costs, thereby jeopardizing the mayor-elect’s broader affordable housing plans.

The group found that insurance costs have increased by an average of 25 percent annually, far outpacing inflation. In 8 of the last 12 years, rent increases set by the Rent Guidelines Board were less than 2 percent. To avert a crisis, the report recommends the city spend 1 billion dollars in 2026 to help landlords restructure their debt.

Further measures include reducing insurance costs by backing a captive insurance company, expanding rental assistance, freezing water rates, and resetting rents on vacant units to reflect current median incomes.

______