Market Beats | US Job Cuts Surge to Highest October Level in Over 20 Years; Nancy Pelosi to Retire From Congress; Disney Taps DraftKings as ESPN’s Official Sports Betting Partner; Wall Street Hit by Volatility as Labor Market Cools and Tech Stocks Slide; Google Integrates Prediction Market Data into Google Finance; FAA Cuts 10% of Flight Capacity at 40 US Airports; US Homebuilders Slash Mortgage Rates to Woo Nervous Buyers

—— US Job Cuts Surge to Highest October Level in Over 20 Years; Nancy Pelosi to Retire From Congress; Disney Taps DraftKings as ESPN’s Official Sports Betting Partner; Wall Street Hit by Volatility as Labor Market Cools and Tech Stocks Slide; Google Integrates Prediction Market Data into Google Finance; FAA Cuts 10% of Flight Capacity at 40 US Airports; US Homebuilders Slash Mortgage Rates to Woo Nervous Buyers

1. US Job Cuts Surge to Highest October Level in Over 20 Years

US companies announced the most October job cuts in more than two decades, as artificial intelligence transforms industries and cost-cutting intensifies, according to data from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc.

Employers reported 153,074 layoffs last month — nearly triple the number from a year earlier — led by the technology and warehousing sectors. It was the highest October total since 2003, when the rise of mobile phones similarly disrupted labor markets, said Andy Challenger, the firm’s chief revenue officer.

“Some industries are correcting after the pandemic hiring boom,” Challenger said, “but this comes as AI adoption, weaker consumer and corporate spending, and higher costs drive belt-tightening and hiring freezes.”

He noted that laid-off workers are now finding it harder to secure new roles quickly, a sign the labor market is loosening further. Year-to-date, US companies have announced more than 1 million job cuts — the most since the pandemic — while hiring plans have fallen to their lowest level since 2011.

Seasonal hiring through October is also the weakest since Challenger began tracking it in 2012. “It’s possible that with rate cuts and a strong November, companies could make a late push for workers,” Challenger said. “But at this stage, we don’t expect a strong seasonal hiring environment heading into 2025.”

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2. Nancy Pelosi to Retire From Congress

Nancy Pelosi, the 85-year-old California Democrat who made history as the first woman to serve as speaker of the US House of Representatives, announced Thursday she will retire from Congress at the end of her term — closing a defining chapter in American politics.

“We have made history. We have made progress,” Pelosi said in a video posted on social media. “And now, we must continue to do so by remaining full participants in our democracy and fighting for the American ideals we hold dear.”

Her retirement will open a rare vacancy in her San Francisco-based seat, a Democratic stronghold for nearly four decades. More broadly, Pelosi’s departure leaves a void in national Democratic leadership, raising questions about the party’s direction as it struggles to craft a winning message in the era of President Donald Trump.

A master strategist and prolific fundraiser, Pelosi led House Democrats for nearly 20 years — spanning four presidencies — and was instrumental in shepherding major legislative victories for Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden. Among her landmark achievements were helping to pass the Affordable Care Act, the Dodd-Frank financial reform law, and a sweeping stimulus package following the 2008 financial crisis.

Pelosi’s ability to unify a divided caucus marked by tensions between progressives and moderates made her a formidable leader, though also a favorite target for Republican attack ads.

Even before her announcement, potential successors such as state senator Scott Wiener and progressive activist Saikat Chakrabarti had begun preparing campaigns for her seat. Pelosi’s departure marks the end of an era — one defined by discipline, durability, and an unparalleled impact on Democratic policymaking.

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3. Disney Taps DraftKings as ESPN’s Official Sports Betting Partner

Walt Disney Co. has signed a new multiyear agreement making DraftKings Inc. the official betting site and odds provider for its ESPN sports networks, replacing its previous partnership with Penn Entertainment Inc.

Starting Dec. 1, ESPN users will be able to access DraftKings’ sportsbook, daily fantasy contests, and other products directly through ESPN platforms, according to a Thursday statement from both companies. DraftKings will also manage a dedicated betting tab within the ESPN app and help promote ESPN’s newly launched online service. Financial terms of the deal weren’t disclosed.

Disney and Penn earlier announced they were terminating their 10-year, $2 billion partnership after failing to gain significant traction in the competitive sports-betting market.

Penn, based in Wyomissing, Pennsylvania, had previously exited its Barstool Sports venture after regulatory concerns tied to founder Dave Portnoy and later partnered with ESPN. Despite the efforts of multiple players, the $13.7 billion U.S. sports-betting market remains dominated by DraftKings and FanDuel, a division of Flutter Entertainment.

ESPN Bet, a relatively late entrant, failed to match competitors’ popular features and holds less than a 3% market share, ranking seventh in mobile sports betting. The ESPN Bet brand, however, will continue as a hub for ESPN’s digital programming.

Shares of DraftKings rose 8.5% in early trading, while Penn gained 9.2%. Disney shares were little changed.

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4. Wall Street Hit by Volatility as Labor Market Cools and Tech Stocks Slide

Wall Street was rocked by volatility Thursday as signs of a cooling labor market rattled investors, sending high-valuation tech stocks and cryptocurrencies tumbling while bonds surged on growing bets that the Federal Reserve will cut rates.

Equities fell for the second time in three sessions, with 10-year Treasury yields posting their biggest drop in a month after Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. reported the largest October job cuts in more than 20 years. The Nasdaq 100 slid 1.2%, and the closely watched VIX briefly touched 20. While expectations of rate cuts and the AI boom have powered this year’s bull market, concerns over stretched valuations are mounting. Technical indicators are flashing caution, and worries over the narrowing group of stocks driving gains are growing louder.

“Risk off again,” said Fawad Razaqzada of Forex.com. “It goes to show it’s not always about rate-cut bets — reality is starting to bite. After months of AI-fueled exuberance, traders are rediscovering that fundamentals still matter.”

Chris Murphy at Susquehanna International Group LLP said the latest pullback may be helping to take some “froth” out of the market.

Investors also closely followed remarks from Federal Reserve officials. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned inflation remains a bigger threat than labor weakness, while Chicago Fed chief Austan Goolsbee said the lack of inflation data due to the government shutdown makes him uneasy about rate cuts. Governor Michael Barr added that policymakers still have work to do to bring inflation under control while ensuring the labor market stays strong.

The S&P 500 dropped as much as 1.3% before trimming losses to hover near 6,750. AI-linked favorites like Nvidia Corp. and Palantir Technologies Inc. sold off sharply, while Apple Inc. managed modest gains.

The yield on 10-year Treasuries slid seven basis points to 4.09%. Money markets are now pricing in more than a 60% chance of a Fed rate cut next month. The dollar index slipped 0.3%, and Bitcoin sank 2%.

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5. Google Integrates Prediction Market Data into Google Finance

Gambling’s reach is extending deeper into the investment ecosystem as Google strikes a deal to pipe prediction market data from Kalshi Inc. and Polymarket into its finance platform.

In the partnership announced Thursday, Google Finance said it will offer up the changing odds from the prediction market exchanges when users ask for information about future events. Financial terms of the deal with the Alphabet Inc. unit weren’t disclosed.

Kalshi and Polymarket are getting the valuable imprimatur of Google as they seek to legitimize a product that has been derided, in some circles, as nothing more than gambling. The exchanges have experienced record volumes, due in large part to the popularity of their sports betting products, which offer a federally regulated way to wager on the outcome of sports events despite significant legal pushback from state gaming regulators.

But the companies have been eager to present the trading on their exchanges as a better way to understand the probabilities around a wide array of global issues — from economic data to weather events.

Kalshi and Polymarket both hosted significant trading around the recent US elections, and the odds on the exchanges were cited by many news organizations, in part because they were updated in real time, unlike the more irregular results of polls.

Google said Thursday that the deal will allow its users to “harness the wisdom of the crowds.” As an example, it said that a user asking about future GDP growth will be offered the odds reflected on the exchanges.

The integration marks another step in the merging of speculative and informational markets. Prediction data — once confined to niche crypto platforms — has increasingly been used by traders and analysts as an alternative signal for economic or political risk, even though volumes and liquidity have been patchy.

For Google, the move fits into a broader effort to enrich search results with probabilistic and real-time data, as artificial intelligence-powered tools offer new ways to forecast trends.

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6. FAA Cuts 10% of Flight Capacity at 40 US Airports

The Federal Aviation Administration has announced it’s trimming 10% of scheduled flight capacity across 40 domestic airports to ease the burden on the system caused by the US government shutdown, a move that could disrupt airlines and hundreds of thousands of travelers daily.

An average of 2.5 million people in the US go through airport security checkpoints every day — a number likely to rise during the upcoming holiday season. The ongoing shutdown, already the longest in US history, shows no signs of ending soon.

The FAA hasn’t yet released the full list of the 40 affected airports, but media reports suggest it includes major hubs in New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Atlanta, Dallas and Washington. Details remain limited, but officials have told airlines that the reductions will begin this week, starting with a 4% cut on Friday and building up to 10% next week. The plan is still fluid and subject to change.

Officials said the move is intended to ease pressure on air traffic controllers — the essential workers responsible for keeping flights safe and on schedule — as well as on Transportation Security Administration agents and US Customs and Border Protection officers.

Since the shutdown began, more than 3.4 million passengers have faced delays and cancellations due to staffing shortages, according to Chris Sununu, president and CEO of Airlines for America and former GOP governor of New Hampshire. Reducing flight volume should help alleviate the strain on an overstretched aviation system.

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7. US Homebuilders Slash Mortgage Rates to Woo Nervous Buyers

With the average mortgage rate hovering near 6%, US homebuyers are seeing the most affordable monthly payments in a year. But San Antonio real estate agent Tavyn Weyman knows how to get them even lower — the trick is to buy new.

Across the country, homebuilders are heavily subsidizing mortgage rates to move unsold inventory, offering deals that rival the record lows of the pandemic. They’re also throwing in perks like free appliances, finished basements, and waived closing costs. Weyman said a private builder recently offered one of his clients a 3.49% fixed rate on a $414,000 home — plus an extra commission to cover lease-breaking fees and another $2,000 toward the first month’s payment. “You want to pay $2,000 a month for a new four-bedroom house at a 2% rate? I can find that now,” he said. “It’s all negotiable.”

A single mother relocating from Florida is considering D.R. Horton Inc.’s 3.99% fixed-rate deal, but what caught her eye was the teaser rate of under 1% for the first year.

These incentives are not signs of a healthy housing market — they’re tactics from an industry fighting for attention as tariffs, the government shutdown, and job insecurity linked to artificial intelligence unsettle consumers.

According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, year-to-date US job cuts have exceeded 1 million, the highest since the pandemic. October alone saw 153,000 cuts, the most for that month since 2003.

Builders say the expected demand boost from lower rates hasn’t materialized. “We would have expected to see a bigger bump,” D.R. Horton CEO Paul Romanowski told analysts. Other developers echoed his sentiment: Century Communities cited weak entry-level demand, and PulteGroup said first-time buyer orders fell 14% from last year. Renting remains far cheaper, with rents dipping and retention rates near record highs.

Meanwhile, resale listings are no longer scarce, giving buyers more choices. Still, pending sales barely budged in September. “The existing market is a much more formidable competitor to the homebuilders than it has been for a long time,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “There’s a lot of angst about job security, given there’s no hiring. And artificial intelligence is coming on.”

For the first time in decades, new homes were cheaper than existing ones in July and August, according to John Burns Research & Consulting, which said builders are spending roughly 7.5% of sales prices on incentives, up from 4.8% in May 2024.

Not all mortgage buydowns are equal — some last for the full 30-year term, while others only temporarily lower payments. The latter can be risky for buyers unprepared for higher rates later.

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